Irene - big damage expected

[WXMAN76]

ixl,

Thanks for sharing. I will actually be up north this weekend. It's terrible some people are calling this storm a dud or just another Nor'Easter. If they lived in VT they wouldn't be. over 10 billion in damage so far and 35 dead. What does it take people.

Don't be fooled by the models on TD12. Remember this, models like the Euro and GFS are dynamical models. They don't handle warm core well. And hurricane models don't handle dynamical processes well. Did you notice that even though Irene weakened as she came north, the worst damage was up here? We had the dynamics the tropical processes couldn't do. we were at the perfect latitude to combine both.

Back to TD12 - WE need to watch this closely. why? the pattern. Forget the surface maps look aloft. The ridge is back on the west coast. We have a big trough in the east days 10-14 to kick this out right? nope. typical gfs bias in the fall, dump too much cold air in the trough. End result, a sharper trough farther west opening up the East coast. Notice the cool air over new England now after Irene. Remember I've been saying a cold air mass after labor day, lets say in about 10 days. hmmm. Same pattern as now. I am not saying this will take the same path as Irene, but could. Just saying watch out.

Long range forecasting isn't about looking at the models and taking what they say. You need recognize patterns. Surface maps are full of errors because of friction and poor geography in the models. Models have biases and you need to correct for them. Yeah if your forecasting days 1-3 the models are good. But if you want days 10 15 30 90 look at what the patterns are telling you look back in history. Midwest flooding this spring worst since 1927. VT flooding worst since...1927. Coincidence, not likely. Here is the gfs ensemble path tracks. I wouldn't say this is for the fish, at least not yet.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

This concludes meteorology 101 for today. Pop Quiz Wednesday. Study hard!!!

[WXMAN76]

I hope all the hurricanes stay away too Abby. Hopefully TD12 will be a miss but two storms in two weeks north of hatteras has happened many times before 1954 1955 1996 1999 are a few examples.

No long foliage trip this year. My other half is having Surgery in Mid September. Depending on how well she feels will determine if we make it to VT or NH for fall foliage. In 2009 she had Breast Cancer at 33. Had her Right breast removed. Chemo and Radiation. Has had an expander and now the implant goes in next month. Long battle, no signs of cancer returning.

So I am sure i will turn up somewhere sometime, but it will all depend on her.

[ixl]

Sorry to hear about your wife, ugh, and so young too. :/ Hope she makes a full recovery.

[ixl]

Route 9 to Bennington west of Wilmington.

Wilmington is in really bad shape.

[WXMAN76]

Thank you all, hope to make the usual trek to VT in October. Just have to wait and see. Will make a rare holiday appearance in the North country this weekend. Basing in Littleton NH. Just a much needed getaway.

[Utah Baker]

Please let your wife know of all our best wishes, thoughts, and prayers in her behalf. It hits a tender chord with me, I lost my eldest sister to breast cancer 8 yrs. ago this Sept. So much has improved in treatment since then, and continues too. All our best to you both!

[WXMAN76]

Thank you very much. She has been doing great since the tumors were removed in 2009. But it is a long battle, we just take each day as it comes.

[Andy]

Hi folks: Kind of late to the party, here. Have been out of circulation and haven't been to the forum. My thougths and prayers are with all of my friends in Vermont. You are a resilient people and I know you will go on, just like you have so many times before.

I know all of us participants here are behind you and the wonderful state!