Irene - big damage expected

[WXMAN76]

Hello All!

No changes this morning in my thinking of Irene. Still like the track Hatteras to Sandy hook to East of NYC to Littleton NH to western Maine. NHC agrees and my buddy JB shifted his forecast back East and is on top of mine now. So when 3 forecasts independently think the same thing, confidence is above average. Her slight downgrade in winds this morning is a bit deceiving. her pressure keeps falling so strengthening is likely. She stated her turn Northward last night ahead of schedule, turning to the North-Northeast today. So here is the breakdown: CT/RI/MA western sections 8" of rain wind gusts to 100 coast 80 inland. Eastern Sections wind gusts the same 3-6" rain 2-4" cape and islands. VT 8" rain. gusts to 80 south 60 north. NH 3-6" rain gusts to 80 south 60 north. Maine Rain 6" west 2-5" east. Gusts to 60 west, southwest. 40 central and coast. less than 40 north.

Coastal CT/RI/SE mass strong storm surge on top of an Astronomical high tide. Eastern MA north of the cape less. This is where the strongest damages are likey to occur.

[WXMAN76]

Hey Abby!

Well as far as timing. Squally weather will begin in earnest later saturday night. Main event is daylight hours Sunday in Southern New England, Overnight hours in Central and northern New England, and daylight Monday in far northern Maine. Unfortunately for people on the south coast. the timing will be bad for the 8-9 pm astronomical high tide. Long Island looks to bear the brunt of this. Still like the track from this morning, I could be just slightly west and storm may pass just east of the Conn. River Valley. will have to wait and see, but I don't expect any significant changes to forecasted strength and track from this point on. Just a bit of tweeking.

[WXMAN76]

Evening Irene update. New data in. Pressures holding, cloud tops cooling, could still see a spike in intensity later tonight. Irene has made the turn North Northeast again earlier as expected. Timing looks like this for the center Sat 2pm Hatteras NC
10 pm Sat Sandy Hook NJ 11AM sunday Long island Sound 8PM Sunday Northern ME. Track should shift eastward a bit, putting the storm over Hartford and just East of the Conn. River Valley. Not enough change to change previous rainfall and windfall . Expect the first showers about 12 hrs ahead of the center. Winds and Rains pick up 8 hrs ahead of the center. Strongest winds 100 miles west of track to 200 miles east of track. Heaviest rains along and west of track. Strongest winds to the East. Will update tomorrow as needed.

Good night and be safe

[ixl]

Thanks for the updates. NHC has downgraded the winds this am saying the cloud tops have warmed and the system looks more disorganized.. your thoughts? Seems to me the storm in general is weaker now than was forecast a couple of days ago, when they were talking about 110+ MPH slamming into Hatteras.

Radar suggests the eye is coming on shore near Morehead City, NC right now.. so perhaps she's moving faster than expected?

[WXMAN76]

This is an interesting storm. While the winds continue to weaken, the pressure remains low. It has winds of a cat 1 and pressures of a cat 3. Hatteras has had gusts to 100/110 out of this. Irene will pop back out over the water for a time b4 making landfall on LI and New England. As she heads north she will encounter the westerlies. There is progged to be a strong jet stream max to her north to help ventilate her. What concerns me is as she continues to move north, what the tropical warm core processes can't do, the dynamical processes will. So I expect the storm to stay strong as she moves north. Also remember that the surface winds are estimated from above where the recon planes fly. There is always some error in there.

[Rockwall Tim]

Tony: Again, thanks for what you mean to this forum. BTW, yesterday I heard an "expert" on a national radio show say that he thought the storm was being overblown (bad pun) and that when all was said and done, damage would be under $1 billion. I don't think he'll be called again. This is going to be a multi-billion dollar storm that will be referenced for decades to come.

[WXMAN76]

Well I hear a local yokal in Boston say this will be nothing worse than a nor'easter. HMMM can't remember the last noreaster that dumperd a foot of RAIN on New England. (west of the track). As she comes north she should tighten, and even as the storm becomes extra-tropical over New England, the storm should EXPAND to cover more territory, and often there is a period of what we call baroclinic forcing. In laymans terms it means a tightening of the pressure gradiant, tighter pressure=stronger winds. That's why I said in an earlier post what the tropical processes cant do, the dynamics will. Remember this storm is going to pass very close to DC, Baltimore,Phily, and NYC. If this storm only does 1 billion dollars in damage going right up the Northeast Corridor I'll give up forecasting. 200,000 w/o power in NC already. Can't tell me there isn't going to be significant damage there.

As far as track and intensity not changing from yesterday. I'll stay the course. With a pressure as deep as Irenes and no signs of a pressure rise, I'm just not fooled by cat 1 winds. Saw an hourly gust to 87 at Hatteras and they have tropical storm conditions forecast. Pressures still falling so the center isn't there yet. Who knows the max between hours.

[Rockwall Tim]

Tony: What is your best guess on max winds, say, in 3 sectors: southern Vermont, central Vermont, Northeast Kingdom.

Also, given the already wet conditions, what do you think the max wind is that can be tolerated by the state without significant damage to the trees?

[WXMAN76]

Good questions. First i got the latest recon report. Irene is over land near kill devil hills nc. her pressure remains steady at 950 mb 28.06 inches of Mercury. Later this evening she will pop off the coast of VA, riding the Gulf stream into coastal NJ by 8-9 pm and into LI New England around 2am Sunday. Don't really expect much change in pressure or strength until her final landfall in New England I see no reason to change track or intensity from precious thinking. The storm will be over cooler waters and might try to strengthen but as she moves north Dynamics improve with a tightening of the pressure gradient from the big high in southern Canada and Irene, and the jet stream max over Canada will ventilate her keeping her a strong storm as she transitions from tropical to extra-tropical across northern New England and Eastern Canada.

As for max winds look for sustained winds 60 mph G80mph in the south
Central VT and NEK winds 55mph G 70mph
NW VT winds 45mph G60

For damge it's tough to say. It's not uniformly flat with uniform soils. You have everything from sandy soils to rocky. Elevational changes too. The most damage will be in the East and at higher elevations where friction won't slow down the winds. Protected Valleys should fair pretty well, think the high elevations will bear the brunt of the storm. Trees are healthy. I think the bigger story will be flooding as opposed to wind storm damage. Total rainfalls of 8" will be common, and can see as much as 12". That I think will be the bigger story. Here along the coast we may only see 2-5" of rain but our winds will be stronger as we remain on the Eastern and stronger side of the storm. Worst damage may very well be LI and NYC as the winds push all that water into Long Island sound for the astronomical high tide

I saw NHC weakened the storms winds again. Think this is foolish, they have been weakening the winds all day, without pressure rises, or decreasing organization of the structure. Hard to believe only 80 mph winds with a pressure of 28.06 inches of Mercury. This storm could very well set pressure records for cities on the east coast, esepcially as we move north.
Watch out for your barometers, they've fallen and can't get up!

[Rockwall Tim]

And all this time, I thought April was the "mud season" in Vermont...

[WXMAN76]

Not supposed to be? Must be fall my Yankee foliage addition it just blew in today. Irene is back over open waters. her pressure remains very low, yet her winds weak. The eye was clouded earlier but she has regained it this evening. This will make for a marvelous case study. Of note though, her winds increase sharply with height, which is not normal for hurricanes. Once she hits the higher elevations, we may see higher wind velocities than otherwise would be seen. Oh to be on Mount Washington tomorrow!

No changes this evening otherwise, still happy with my forecast. Back to reading my Yankee Foliage edition. See this thread does relate to fall foliage! LOL

[Rockwall Tim]

Man, I forgot about Mt. Washington...bet they stay indoors tomorrow.

Is it safe to say that thus far, Irene hasn't been stronger than forecast and indeed, may be a tad weaker? (I'm looking for any encouragement I can). If NYC and Philly come out of this relatively unscathed, that doesn't bode well for the next one. Folks will tend to dismiss warnings and use Irene as their excuse.

[WXMAN76]

Well as far as a pressure rating this storm was as strong as we expected, but the winds never materialized to what they should have been. This will be a storm for case study. My personal theory is that the wind field was so large that the storms energy was spread over such a wide are, instead of being concentrated near the center. WIll be fun to research that further. Hopefully all is safe here in New England and beyond. People had warning of this storm from this site days ahead of the media, and I hope that preparation helps. Even 1 life lost is too many.

[WXMAN76]

I can't say I am surprised. Will be interesting to see the hydro reports tomorrow morning for rainfall totals. South coast had gusts to 90. I had a gust to 76, and Mount washington hit 104mph. Fortunately I am so far east we have a few branches down here and there. Last I heard 4 million without power. Fortunately the wids were not as bad as I thought, but I did have the track and rain pegged a few days ago. For those who care to, watch the wave coming off Africa Today. It will likely become the next area of interest. Incidently the track of this was like Carol in 1954 and Floyd in 1999. Both years had a second east coast system Edna in 54 and Dennis in 99. East coast back open for business days 10-14.

First major cool shot Sept 6-8. Could see highs in the 50s and 60s and the first chance of frosts! Hey in wild world of weather there is always something else coming down the pike.

Thanks for reading and keep the reports coming.

[ixl]

Major mess here in Bennington: http://www.benningtonbanner.com/ci_18777250

Our power just came back on after a very stressful evening. I thought I was going to be up all night baling my basement.. and it could still happen.

ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8zZLyct_D8