Scenes of Vermont Forums

Hello to all!

Thought I would give you all a heads up on the upcoming weather. This week ahead will feature an abrupt change from our recent weather pattern. Sunshine today and Sunday fades away on Monday. Monday night through Wednesday morning will feature lots of rain, heavy at times. Doesn't look like a gale center though so not expecting strong winds.

For you photographers out there, Wednesday and Thursday look to feature lots of clouds but little in the way of rain, perhaps some good picture taking. As we head into next weekend, high pressure takes over with a return to sunshine starting Friday, with cool crisp days.

The focus of the super long range tells us we need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Matthew. Matthew could make a run across Florida then up the East coast. Right now it looks to stay just offshore. Heading into the BIG holiday weekend, look for a BIG COLD high pressure to take over. lots of sun, cool frosty mornings, and crisp days. No big storms are in the offering right now for Columbus day weekend, perhaps just a cold front.

That's all I have for you this morning. Happy leaf peeping!

Thanks Wxman for the predicted weather updates. Waxman and others who are into weather forecasting, please keep your weather reports coming! Lots of folks will appreciate your weather updates as they make travel plans to be in Vermont during the brief time frame of Vermont's colorful, foliage season.

Aspen

O.k. WXMAN: I am leaving for VT on Friday and your forecast sounds pretty darn good for the week I will be there. I WILL hold you to it and I intend to SUE if you are incorrect!!

You guys are all welcome, and I will keep the forecasts coming! Next weekend does look good indeed. Oct 4 and 5, to be honest is the most uncertain time. The longer range models have shown everything from a heavy rainstorm, to a tropical storm skirting or hitting new england, to the latest with it just offshore. Please don't worry about it yet. The longer range models are only good for giving general patterns of the weather, the details ususally change run to run, so I don't put much faith in the details, but the overall forecasted pattern I'm pretty confident. In fact after Oct 5th bring warm weather gear, it could be pretty chilly!

I'm there the same time as Andy and mmvt and a few days before. By the way, who would we be suing? Mother Nature???

Thanks WXMAN. Love your reports! I think we are in for some awesome foliage weather!!!! And I love it cold! Let the fun begin!

Thanks, WXMAN. The weather info is definitely appreciated.

CT: "Who would we be suing?"

Cmon, CT!! After all these years of slimy commercials, don't you know? We sue everybody and everything in sight

Seriously, WXMAN, thanks so much for lending your expertise to the site. I know despite the best science and efforts, nobody can truly predict what nature will bring us. But we can certainly hope and pray!! And it is nice to have a long range idea. Packing today, so its nice to know whether it is shorts and t-shirts or something slightly warmer.

Yes, Andy, for a moment I forgot who I was responding to. I know the lawyer in you comes out here on occasion...... I guess it would be better to sue everyone BUT Mother Nature! We want to keep her happy!

Seriously? I hope you are kidding about the shorts and Tshirts. I have a duffle for warm outerwear: earmuffs, gloves, down vest, fleece and a ski jacket! (Oh yes and my autumn scarf). The tops of those mountains when we take the lifts can be FREEZING especially with the wind!

You do recall we had snow last season?

What effect are we going to see on foliage from this kind of weather?

Krishna

Many people think that rain knocks down leaves but my experience has been that this is not the case. I've been out on my foliage trips and gone through rainy periods and there's little effect on the leaves.

I've found two main weather events are most responsible for leaf loss.

First and foremost: wind. That's obvious.

Second: cold. Hard freeze knocks leaves off the trees far more than most folks realize. I've been out on a frosty am and watched as the sun warms the trees above freezing and the leaves fall like confetti even in calm air.

PS I see on the models a big, big storm for later this week.. hopefully it won't be too windy or we'll lose a lot of leaves. The weekend looks iffy but the week after looks like it may feature a huge high pressure cell -- sunny and crisp weather for days, if it happens.

Monday 9-27-10

Wet weather ahead followed bu Autumns chill and a look at Columbus Day.

Overall the forecast pattern hasn't changed much from my previous post.

Mon 9/28 Lots of clouds and drizzle, steadier rain at night 60s/40s
Tue 9/29 Cloudy with periods of heavy rain continuing at night. near70/50
Wed 9/30 Morning showers then cloudy mid 60s/mid 40s
Thur & Fri 9/31,10/1 Clouds, a few breaks, maybe a shower 60s/ near 40
Sat 10/2 Sunny Crisp. Upper 50s/ near 30
Sunday 10/3 Sunny and cool/ Low 50s/ 20s *

*note southern New England could see the first frosts of the season

Long Range:

Expect sunshine and cool weather most of the week, and into the Columbus Day weekend. There could be a period of rain Around Wednesday, and perhaps a cold front during the holiday weekend.
Temps will be chilly. Highs generally in the 50s and 60's. Lows well into the 30s.

Thanks for the weather updates. Arriving from Oregon on Friday to visit family and staying 10 days. Never been to VT in the fall and am looking forward to a great foilage show. Appreciate all the info on this forum. Thanks to everyone for posting.

Thanks so much for the weather updates, we too arrive this weekend, and I was just checking the 10 day on line, and getting just a but nervous, regarding wind & rain. I do so look forward to the cooler temps though, as we are experiencing unseasonalvly warm weather with temps in the 90's this week, ugh I am so ready for summer to release her grip on us!! So please keep us updated we appreciate it

WXMAN: Your info is so very much appreciated. I'm gonna be in the St. Johnsbury area over the holiday weekend. It's funny...accuweather is showing cloudy with some rain for that time frame. I'm rooting for the high pressure!

You are all welcome.

Tuesday AM update

Looks like Well see two batches of heavy rain one today with a passing warm front. The other will be Thursday and Thursday night when some tropical moisture rides northward along a slow moving cold front.

Friday should feature clouds giving way to sunshine. Saturday and Sunday will be kinda tricky because what you get will be highly dependent on where you are. High pressure moves in for much of New England. However the models are hinting at some leftover moisture over Northern Vermont. So what will likely happen is the weekend days start sunny, then some clouds build, and perhaps a stray shower in the afternoon, especially over the highest terrain. In fact if some showers linger into the nighttime hours it will be cold enough for the adirondacks and perhaps Mt Mansfield to see a few snow showers.

No washouts are expected though this weekend. I worked for Accuweather a few years back. They tend to concentrate on the first 5 days after that their forecasts are mostly pre loaded from models, unless they have a specific client in the area. They do a good job though. Many talented people still work there and I look at their forecasts every day.