unsettled weather ahead

ixl · Post: # 12063Post **ixl** Tue Sep 28, 2010 8:09 am

Thanks for the report.

I've been watching the "lingering moisture" northeast of the building high for several days. In my experience, especially this time of year, when it's borderline between nice and cloudy/drizzly, it is far more likely to be the latter than the former. I'd expect marginal weather for the weekend.

WXMAN76 · Post: # 12064Post **WXMAN76** Tue Sep 28, 2010 9:31 am

IXL

I agree with you, with the lower sun angle it's tough to burn out that moisture. The other tough thing is forecasting for the general area. You really can't issue a blanket forecast. Wouldn't be surprised if Burlington was sunny, as well as the Connecticut river valley, but around Mansfield, and Stowe, and Killington cloudy. It's all going to be a matter of downsloping.
If it upsloping where you are clouds and showers, if it's downsloping look for sunshine. I can just see highly variable local weather written all over the weekend forecast.

Rockwall Tim · Post: # 12067Post **Rockwall Tim** Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:14 am

Guys: For late next week and the holiday weekend, do you still expect high pressure to be over VT and with it, sunny skies?

BostonRott · Post: # 12068Post **BostonRott** Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:14 am

You guys continue to be a wealth of info! Thank you for your time and help!!!

ixl · Post: # 12070Post **ixl** Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:28 am

Rockwall Tim wrote:Guys: For late next week and the holiday weekend, do you still expect high pressure to be over VT and with it, sunny skies?

Too early. In my experience, the models are about this reliable:

<48 hours: Pretty darned good, can predict fairly well not just if but when we'll get rain.

2 to 4 days: Decent overall, but timing is not often reliable.

4 to 7 days: Good for overall trends, but high chance of error.

7 to 10 days: Only useful for looking at basic patterns.

10+ days: Get out the magic 8-ball.

WXMAN76 · Post: # 12074Post **WXMAN76** Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:49 pm

IXL Great one

Get out the magic 8 ball. LOVE IT!!!

You know I have found that sometimes in the 12-16 day period the GFS is actually right on, in the 4-12 it loses the right idea completely. It finally figures it out again inside of 72 hours.

Ever noticed that IXL?

GFS still holds onto high pressure for Columbus day weekend, so I think we're still safe.

ixl · Post: # 12077Post **ixl** Tue Sep 28, 2010 5:26 pm

Whenever I look at the GFS past 10 days I start to see those weirdo mega-troughs that extend from Baffin Island to Mexico City, laugh and close the browser window.

ixl · Post: # 12089Post **ixl** Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:25 pm

Heh.. the rain on Thursday is now officially "tropical".